Question 1

What was "Portuguese Presidential Election Winner?" and why did it matter?

Accepted Answer

Portuguese Presidential Election Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). António José Seguro (IND) led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include André Ventura (CH) at 26%, Catarina Martins (BE) at 26%, Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND) at 26%.

Question 2

What moved the odds on "Portuguese Presidential Election Winner?"?

Accepted Answer

António José Seguro (IND) held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind António José Seguro (IND), André Ventura (CH) at 26% and Catarina Martins (BE) at 26% and Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND) at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 3

What were the final odds for "Portuguese Presidential Election Winner?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: António José Seguro (IND): 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. André Ventura (CH): 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Catarina Martins (BE): 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND): 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 4

What did 100% odds for António José Seguro (IND) mean?

Accepted Answer

A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that António José Seguro (IND) would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.

Candidate
António José Seguro (IND)WINNER	99%	100%
André Ventura (CH)	1%	50%
Catarina Martins (BE)	1%	50%
Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND)	1%	50%
João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)	1%	50%
Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)	1%	50%
Rui Moreira (IND)	1%	50%
Tim Vieira (IND)	1%	50%

António José Seguro (IND) Wins: Portuguese Presidential Election Winner?

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Market Rulebook: Portuguese Presidential Election Winner?