Live prediction market odds for Powell out as Chair?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Opinion.
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Polymarket / Opinion
2026-05-01
Polymarket and Opinion are tracking the potential departure of Powell as Chair. Market sentiment is influenced by economic indicators, Federal Reserve decisions, and political pressures that could impact leadership stability.
May 14 is priced at 3.3% implied probability for the “Powell out as Chair” event. A 3.3% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include economic performance, inflation rates, and political pressures from the administration. Changes in monetary policy could also influence his standing.
Prediction markets aggregate opinions and data to estimate probabilities of events. Shifts in market prices often reflect new information or changes in sentiment.
As Chair, Powell influences U.S. monetary policy, impacting interest rates and economic growth. His leadership decisions can affect global markets and economic stability.
Powell out as Chair is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Polymarket, Opinion). May 14 leads at 3% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
May 14 currently leads at 3% implied probability. The 3.3% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Opinion and Polymarket.
OpinionThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
May 14
3.3% avg
