Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the Pro Baseball Champion?

Accepted Answer

Team performance throughout the season, player injuries, and trade decisions are key factors. Additionally, historical performance and fan sentiment can also impact the odds.

Question 2

When does the Pro Baseball Champion event take place?

Accepted Answer

The championship is scheduled for October 31, 2026. This timing aligns with the conclusion of the MLB postseason.

Question 3

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment on the champion?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants, reflecting their expectations and confidence in various teams. As the season progresses, these odds can fluctuate based on real-time developments.

Question 4

What is "Pro Baseball Champion" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Pro Baseball Champion is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun). Pittsburgh Pirates leads at 50% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include New York Mets at 50%, Milwaukee Brewers at 50%, Baltimore Orioles at 50%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Pro Baseball Champion"?

Accepted Answer

Pittsburgh Pirates currently leads at 50% implied probability. Behind Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Mets at 50% and Milwaukee Brewers at 50% and Baltimore Orioles at 50% are the next closest contenders. The 97.6% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Pro Baseball Champion" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun: Pittsburgh Pirates: 2¢ on Kalshi, 99¢ on Polymarket. New York Mets: 1¢ on Kalshi, 99¢ on Polymarket. Milwaukee Brewers: 5¢ on Kalshi, 95¢ on Polymarket. Baltimore Orioles: 1¢ on Kalshi, 99¢ on Polymarket. The 97.6% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Pittsburgh Pirates is at 50%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 50¢ means the market estimates a 50% probability that Pittsburgh Pirates will be the outcome. Buying one share at 50¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 100% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	26.0%	26¢	26¢	74¢	75¢
Polymarket	25.5%	25¢	26¢	74¢	75¢
Predict.fun	26.0%	26¢	26¢	74¢	74¢

Pro Baseball Champion

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Market Rulebook: Pro Baseball Champion