Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the Pro Baseball Champion?

Accepted Answer

Team performance throughout the season, player injuries, and trade decisions are key factors. Additionally, historical performance and fan sentiment can also impact the odds.

Question 2

When does the Pro Baseball Champion event take place?

Accepted Answer

The championship is scheduled for October 31, 2026. This timing aligns with the conclusion of the MLB postseason.

Question 3

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment on the champion?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants, reflecting their expectations and confidence in various teams. As the season progresses, these odds can fluctuate based on real-time developments.

Question 4

What is "Pro Baseball Champion" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Pro Baseball Champion is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Los Angeles Dodgers leads at 29% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include New York Yankees at 11%, Seattle Mariners at 8%, New York Mets at 6%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Pro Baseball Champion"?

Accepted Answer

Los Angeles Dodgers currently leads at 29% implied probability. Behind Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees at 11% and Seattle Mariners at 8% and New York Mets at 6% are the next closest contenders. The 5.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Pro Baseball Champion" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Los Angeles Dodgers: 32¢ on Kalshi, 27¢ on Polymarket. New York Yankees: 12¢ on Kalshi, 10¢ on Polymarket. Seattle Mariners: 9¢ on Kalshi, 7¢ on Polymarket. New York Mets: 6¢ on Kalshi, 5¢ on Polymarket. The 5.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Los Angeles Dodgers is at 29%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 29¢ means the market estimates a 29% probability that Los Angeles Dodgers will be the outcome. Buying one share at 29¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 245% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	32.0%	32¢	32¢	68¢	68¢
Polymarket	26.5%	26¢	27¢	73¢	74¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	11.5%	11¢	12¢	88¢	89¢
Polymarket	9.5%	9¢	10¢	90¢	91¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	9.0%	9¢	9¢	91¢	92¢
Polymarket	7.0%	7¢	7¢	93¢	93¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	4.5%	4¢	5¢	95¢	96¢
Polymarket	4.0%	4¢	4¢	96¢	97¢

Pro Baseball Champion

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Market Rulebook: Pro Baseball Champion