What are the current odds for "Pro Baseball Steals Leader" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Bobby Witt Jr: 29¢ on Kalshi, 36¢ on Polymarket. Nasim Nuñez: 13¢ on Kalshi, 29¢ on Polymarket. Chandler Simpson: 12¢ on Kalshi, 12¢ on Polymarket. Luisangel Acuña: 7¢ on Kalshi, 1¢ on Polymarket. The 16.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

What does it mean that Bobby Witt Jr is at 33%?

A price of 33¢ means the market estimates a 33% probability that Bobby Witt Jr will be the outcome. Buying one share at 33¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 203% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Pro Baseball Steals Leader Odds — Bobby Witt Jr 33¢

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ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 16.0% // +$1600.00

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About This Market

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Pro Baseball Steals Leader for the 2026 season. This event highlights the competitive nature of base running in professional baseball, influencing team strategies and player valuations as the season progresses.

Bobby Witt Jr leads the “Pro Baseball Steals Leader” event at 32.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Nasim Nuñez (21.0%), Chandler Simpson (11.8%), Luisangel Acuña (4.0%), and José Ramírez (6.1%). A 16.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

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Live Markets

2 platforms

Bobby Witt Jr

31% Avg

29¢

62¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	25.5%	22¢	29¢	71¢	78¢
Polymarket	36.0%	10¢	62¢	38¢	90¢

Nasim NuñezARB

22% Avg

19¢

29¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	15.5%	12¢	19¢	81¢	88¢
Polymarket	27.5%	26¢	29¢	71¢	74¢

Chandler Simpson

12% Avg

15¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	11.5%	8¢	15¢	85¢	92¢
Polymarket	13.0%	11¢	15¢	85¢	89¢

Luisangel Acuña

3% Avg

7¢

1¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	4.0%	1¢	7¢	93¢	99¢
Polymarket	1.0%	1¢	1¢	99¢	99¢

José RamírezARB

7% Avg

13¢

6¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	10.0%	7¢	13¢	87¢	93¢
Polymarket	3.5%	1¢	6¢	94¢	100¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Bobby Witt Jr

Bobby Witt Jr. is a professional baseball shortstop for the Kansas City Royals. He was selected second overall in the 2019 MLB Draft and made his MLB debut in 2022. Witt is the first shortstop in MLB history to achieve multiple 30–30 seasons, having done so in 2023 and 2024.

About Chandler Simpson

Chandler Simpson is an outfielder for the Tampa Bay Rays. He led the minors with 104 stolen bases in 2024. His exceptional speed and base-stealing prowess make him a strong contender for the MLB stolen base title.

About José Ramírez

José Ramírez is the third baseman for the Cleveland Guardians. He signed a seven-year, $141 million contract extension with the team in 2022. Ramírez is a four-time All-Star and has been a key contributor to the Guardians' offense since his MLB debut in 2013.

About José Caballero

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Pro Baseball Steals Leader?

Player performance metrics, injury reports, and team dynamics significantly impact the odds. Additionally, historical trends in base stealing can provide insights into potential leaders.

How is the Pro Baseball Steals Leader determined?

The leader is determined by the total number of stolen bases recorded by players during the regular season. This statistic is closely monitored and updated throughout the season.

Why is base stealing important in baseball?

Base stealing adds a strategic element to the game, allowing teams to advance runners and create scoring opportunities. It can also affect pitching strategies and defensive alignments.

What is "Pro Baseball Steals Leader" and why does it matter?

Pro Baseball Steals Leader is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Bobby Witt Jr leads at 33% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Nasim Nuñez at 21%, Chandler Simpson at 12%, Luisangel Acuña at 4%.

What is moving the odds on "Pro Baseball Steals Leader"?

Bobby Witt Jr currently leads at 33% implied probability. Behind Bobby Witt Jr, Nasim Nuñez at 21% and Chandler Simpson at 12% and Luisangel Acuña at 4% are the next closest contenders. The 16.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Kalshi

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Stats

Spread16.0%

Platforms2

Candidates25

Leader

Bobby Witt Jr

32.5% avg

Pro Baseball Steals Leader

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About Bobby Witt Jr

About Chandler Simpson

About José Ramírez

About José Caballero

Frequently Asked Questions

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Market Rulebook: Pro Baseball Steals Leader

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