Live prediction market odds for Republican nominee for AZ-05 in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-01
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Republican nominee for AZ-05 in 2026. The outcome will influence party dynamics and campaign strategies in a key congressional district as the election approaches.
Mark Lamb leads the “Republican nominee for AZ-05 in 2026” event at 90.3% implied probability. Other contenders include Travis Grantham (4.0%), and Jay Feely (3.6%). A 4.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Key factors include candidate popularity, fundraising capabilities, and endorsements. Polling data and voter sentiment in the district also play crucial roles.
The nominee's performance can sway voter turnout and influence the balance of power in Congress. A strong candidate may enhance the party's chances in other competitive races.
AZ-05 is considered a battleground district, making it vital for Republican strategies. Winning this seat could provide momentum for the party in statewide elections.
Republican nominee for AZ-05 in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Mark Lamb leads at 90% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Travis Grantham at 4%, Jay Feely at 4%.
Mark Lamb currently leads at 90% implied probability. Behind Mark Lamb, Travis Grantham at 4% and Jay Feely at 4% are the next closest contenders. The 4.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Jay Feely wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 AZ-5 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mark Lamb
90.3% avg
