Live prediction market odds for Republican nominee for AZ-05 in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-05-01
This market resolved on 2026-05-01. Mark Lamb was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 96%.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Republican nominee for AZ-05 in 2026. The outcome will influence party dynamics and campaign strategies in a key congressional district as the election approaches.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Mark LambWINNER | 96% | 95% |
Jay Feely | 3% | 30% |
Travis Grantham | 1% | 4% |
Key factors include candidate popularity, fundraising capabilities, and endorsements. Polling data and voter sentiment in the district also play crucial roles.
The nominee's performance can sway voter turnout and influence the balance of power in Congress. A strong candidate may enhance the party's chances in other competitive races.
AZ-05 is considered a battleground district, making it vital for Republican strategies. Winning this seat could provide momentum for the party in statewide elections.
Republican nominee for AZ-05 in 2026 was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Mark Lamb led the market at 96% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Jay Feely at 16%, Travis Grantham at 2%.
Mark Lamb held the lead at 96% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Mark Lamb, Jay Feely at 16% and Travis Grantham at 2% were the next closest contenders. The 27.2% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Jay Feely wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 AZ-5 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mark Lamb
95.5% avg
