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Live prediction market odds for Republican nominee for Governor in Florida in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Republican nominee for Governor in Florida in 2026?

2026-05-01

About This Market

Share

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida in 2026. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the state's political landscape and set the stage for future elections in a key battleground state.

Byron Donalds leads the “Republican nominee for Governor in Florida in 2026” event at 86.3% implied probability. Other contenders include Casey DeSantis (25.3%), Wilton Simpson (25.1%), Jimmy Patronis (25.1%), and James Fishback (9.7%). A 49.9% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
BD
Byron Donalds
87% Avg
Kalshi87¢
Polymarket87¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
86.5%86¢87¢13¢14¢
PolymarketPolymarket
86.5%86¢87¢13¢14¢
CD
Casey DeSantisARB
25% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket50¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢100¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%50¢50¢50¢50¢
WS
Wilton SimpsonARB
25% Avg
Kalshi0¢
Polymarket50¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.0%0¢0¢100¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%50¢50¢50¢50¢
JP
Jimmy PatronisARB
25% Avg
Kalshi0¢
Polymarket50¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.0%0¢0¢100¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%50¢50¢50¢50¢
JF
James Fishback
10% Avg
Kalshi9¢
Polymarket11¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
9.0%9¢9¢91¢91¢
PolymarketPolymarket
10.0%9¢11¢89¢91¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Byron Donalds

Byron Donalds is the U.S. Representative for Florida's 19th congressional district. He previously served in the Florida House of Representatives from 2016 to 2020. He is currently running for governor of Florida in the 2026 election.

About James Fishback

James Fishback is the CEO of Azoria Partners, an investment management firm. He previously worked for Greenlight Capital until 2023. He is running for the Republican nomination in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Republican nominee in Florida?

Polling data, candidate endorsements, and public sentiment play crucial roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, the political climate leading up to the election can significantly impact candidate viability.

How do prediction markets determine the likelihood of candidates winning?

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who buy and sell shares based on their expectations of outcomes. Prices reflect the collective wisdom and sentiment regarding each candidate's chances.

When is the election for the Republican nominee in Florida?

The primary election for the Republican nominee is scheduled for May 1, 2026. This date is critical as it will determine the party's candidate for the gubernatorial race.

What is "Republican nominee for Governor in Florida in 2026?" and why does it matter?

Republican nominee for Governor in Florida in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Byron Donalds leads at 86% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Casey DeSantis at 25%, Wilton Simpson at 25%, Jimmy Patronis at 25%.

What is moving the odds on "Republican nominee for Governor in Florida in 2026?"?

Byron Donalds currently leads at 86% implied probability. Behind Byron Donalds, Casey DeSantis at 25% and Wilton Simpson at 25% and Jimmy Patronis at 25% are the next closest contenders. The 49.9% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Republican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread49.9%
Platforms2
Candidates7

Market Rulebook: Republican nominee for Governor in Florida in 2026?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Byron Donalds wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Republican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
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Leader

Byron Donalds

86.3% avg