Live prediction market odds for Republican nominee for Governor in Michigan in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-05-01
This market resolved on 2026-05-01. Aric Nesbitt was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 50%.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Republican nominee for Governor in Michigan in 2026. This nomination is crucial as it could influence the state's political landscape and impact future legislative agendas.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Aric NesbittWINNER | 1% | 99% |
Mike Cox | 5% | 93% |
John James | 49% | 46% |
Tom Leonard |
Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising capabilities, and endorsements. Polling data and public sentiment leading up to the election also play a significant role.
The primary election is scheduled for May 1, 2026. This date is critical for determining the Republican nominee ahead of the general election.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events. Prices reflect the collective wisdom of market participants regarding the likelihood of various candidates winning the nomination.
Republican nominee for Governor in Michigan in 2026 was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Aric Nesbitt led the market at 50% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Mike Cox at 49%, John James at 48%, Tom Leonard at 50%.
Aric Nesbitt held the lead at 50% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Aric Nesbitt, Mike Cox at 49% and John James at 48% and Tom Leonard at 50% were the next closest contenders. The 99.8% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Mike Cox wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Michigan Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
| 100% |
Aric Nesbitt
49.6% avg
