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Live prediction market odds for Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota in 2026?

2026-05-01

About This Market

Share

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota in 2026. The outcome will influence party dynamics and strategies leading up to the gubernatorial election, as candidates position themselves to appeal to voters in a competitive landscape.

Lisa Demuth leads the “Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota in 2026” event at 53.8% implied probability. Other contenders include Kendall Qualls (21.8%), Kristin Robbins (1.1%), Scott Jensen (0.8%), and Brad Kohler (0.6%). Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.8% spread.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
No price history available

Live Markets

2 platforms
LD
Lisa Demuth
54% Avg
Kalshi54¢
Polymarket56¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
53.5%53¢54¢46¢47¢
PolymarketPolymarket
54.0%52¢56¢44¢48¢
KQ
Kendall Qualls
22% Avg
Kalshi23¢
Polymarket28¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
22.5%22¢23¢77¢78¢
PolymarketPolymarket
21.5%15¢28¢72¢85¢
KR
Kristin Robbins
1% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.5%1¢2¢98¢99¢
SJ
Scott Jensen
1% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.0%1¢1¢99¢99¢
BK
Brad Kohler
0% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.0%0¢0¢100¢100¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Lisa Demuth

Lisa Demuth is the Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives, representing District 13A. She previously served as the House Minority Leader and was the first Black lawmaker to hold that position. She is running for the Republican nomination for governor in the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election.

About Kendall Qualls

Kendall Qualls is a Republican candidate for Governor of Minnesota in 2026. He previously ran for governor in 2022 and for Congress in 2020. His candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as he is actively campaigning for the 2026 gubernatorial election.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Republican nominee in Minnesota?

Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising success, and endorsements. Additionally, polling data and public sentiment towards key issues play a crucial role.

When is the primary election for the Minnesota gubernatorial race?

The primary election is scheduled for May 1, 2026. This date is critical as it determines which candidates will advance to the general election.

How do prediction markets work for political nominations?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of various outcomes, influenced by real-time information and events.

What is "Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota in 2026?" and why does it matter?

Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Lisa Demuth leads at 54% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Kendall Qualls at 22%, Kristin Robbins at 1%, Scott Jensen at 1%.

What is moving the odds on "Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota in 2026?"?

Lisa Demuth currently leads at 54% implied probability. Behind Lisa Demuth, Kendall Qualls at 22% and Kristin Robbins at 1% and Scott Jensen at 1% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.8% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Republican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread0.8%
Platforms2
Candidates6

Market Rulebook: Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota in 2026?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Scott Jensen wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Minnesota Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Republican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
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Leader

Lisa Demuth

53.8% avg