Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the Republican nominee in Georgia?

Accepted Answer

Factors include polling data, candidate endorsements, fundraising capabilities, and public sentiment. Additionally, national political trends and local issues can significantly impact the race.

Question 2

When is the primary election for the Republican Senate nominee in Georgia?

Accepted Answer

The primary election is scheduled for May 1, 2026. This date is crucial as it determines which candidate will represent the Republican party in the general election.

Question 3

How does the prediction market reflect the candidates' chances?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets aggregate the collective insights of participants, reflecting their expectations about each candidate's likelihood of winning. As new information emerges, such as debates or campaign events, the odds can fluctuate accordingly.

Question 4

What is "Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia in 2026?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Mike Collins leads at 92% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Derek Dooley at 7%, Buddy Carter at 3%, Brad Raffensperger at 1%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia in 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

Mike Collins currently leads at 92% implied probability. Behind Mike Collins, Derek Dooley at 7% and Buddy Carter at 3% and Brad Raffensperger at 1% are the next closest contenders. The 3.8% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia in 2026?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt: Mike Collins: 93¢ on Kalshi, 92¢ on Polymarket, 93¢ on PredictIt. Derek Dooley: 5¢ on Kalshi, 7¢ on Polymarket, 9¢ on PredictIt. Buddy Carter: 2¢ on Kalshi, 4¢ on PredictIt. Brad Raffensperger: 1¢ on Kalshi, 1¢ on PredictIt. The 3.8% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Mike Collins is at 92%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 92¢ means the market estimates a 92% probability that Mike Collins will be the outcome. Buying one share at 92¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 9% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	93.5%	92¢	95¢	5¢	8¢
Polymarket	91.5%	91¢	92¢	8¢	9¢
PredictIt	92.5%	91¢	94¢	6¢	9¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	5.0%	4¢	6¢	94¢	96¢
Polymarket	7.5%	7¢	8¢	92¢	93¢
PredictIt	8.5%	6¢	11¢	89¢	94¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	1.5%	0¢	3¢	97¢	100¢
PredictIt	4.0%	3¢	5¢	95¢	97¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
PredictIt	1.0%	1¢	1¢	99¢	99¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
PredictIt	1.0%	1¢	1¢	99¢	99¢

Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia in 2026?

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Market Rulebook: Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia in 2026?