Live prediction market odds for Richest person in the world at the end of 2025?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2025-12-31
This market resolved on 2025-12-31. Elon Musk was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Elon MuskWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Bernard Arnault & family | 1% | 50% |
Jeff Bezos | 1% | 50% |
Jensen Huang | 1% | 50% |
Larry Ellison | 1% | 50% |
Mark Zuckerberg | 1% | 50% |
Warren Buffett | 1% | 50% |
Richest person in the world at the end of 2025 was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Elon Musk led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Bernard Arnault & family at 26%, Jeff Bezos at 26%, Jensen Huang at 26%.
Elon Musk held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Elon Musk, Bernard Arnault & family at 26% and Jeff Bezos at 26% and Jensen Huang at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Elon Musk: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Bernard Arnault & family: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Jeff Bezos: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Jensen Huang: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Elon Musk would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Elon Musk
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Elon Musk is the wealthiest person in the world on Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
