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Live prediction market odds for South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner

2026-07-31

About This Market

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Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner. This primary is crucial as it will determine the Republican candidate for the Senate, impacting party dynamics and strategies leading up to the general election.

Lindsey Graham leads the “South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner” event at 86.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Paul Dans (22.9%), Mark Lynch (12.6%), and Thomas Murphy (10.6%). A 44.2% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
LG
Lindsey Graham
87% Avg
Kalshi88¢
Polymarket88¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
87.0%86¢88¢12¢14¢
PolymarketPolymarket
87.0%86¢88¢12¢14¢
PD
Paul DansARB
23% Avg
Kalshi2¢
Polymarket50¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢2¢98¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
45.0%40¢50¢50¢60¢
ML
Mark LynchARB
12% Avg
Kalshi12¢
Polymarket14¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
11.0%10¢12¢88¢90¢
PolymarketPolymarket
13.5%13¢14¢86¢87¢
TM
Thomas MurphyARB
10% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket30¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
20.0%10¢30¢70¢90¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Lindsey Graham

Lindsey Graham is the current Chair of the Senate Budget Committee and U.S. Senator from South Carolina. He has served in the Senate since 2003 and was re-elected in 2020. He is seeking re-election in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary.

About Paul Dans

Paul Dans is a Republican candidate for the 2026 South Carolina Senate election, challenging incumbent Senator Lindsey Graham in the Republican primary. He previously served as Chief of Staff at the Office of Personnel Management in 2020 and led Project 2025, a conservative policy initiative. His candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as he is a key contender in the upcoming Republican primary.

About Mark Lynch

Mark Lynch is a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate from South Carolina in the 2026 election. He is the owner and president of Jeff Lynch Appliance Center in Greenville, South Carolina. Lynch is challenging incumbent Senator Lindsey Graham in the Republican primary scheduled for June 9, 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the South Carolina Republican Senate Primary?

The primary determines which Republican candidate will run for the Senate seat, influencing the party's chances in the general election. It also reflects voter sentiment and party alignment in a key southern state.

How do prediction markets influence the South Carolina Republican Senate Primary?

Prediction markets provide real-time insights into candidate viability based on betting activity. They can reflect public opinion and expert analysis, shaping campaign strategies and funding decisions.

What factors can affect the odds in the South Carolina Republican Senate Primary?

Polling data, candidate endorsements, and debate performances can significantly influence market odds. Additionally, national political trends and local issues may sway voter preferences leading up to the primary.

What is "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" and why does it matter?

South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Lindsey Graham leads at 87% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Paul Dans at 23%, Mark Lynch at 13%, Thomas Murphy at 11%.

What is moving the odds on "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner"?

Lindsey Graham currently leads at 87% implied probability. Behind Lindsey Graham, Paul Dans at 23% and Mark Lynch at 13% and Thomas Murphy at 11% are the next closest contenders. The 44.2% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread44.2%
Platforms

Market Rulebook: South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Lindsey Graham wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate South Carolina Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina. If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
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2
Candidates4
Leader

Lindsey Graham

86.5% avg