Live prediction market odds for South Carolina Senate winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the South Carolina Senate winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This race is crucial as it could impact the balance of power in the Senate, with various factors influencing voter sentiment and candidate viability.
Republican leads the “South Carolina Senate winner” event at 84.8% implied probability, followed by Democrat at 16.0%. A 4.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and polling data. Additionally, national political trends and local issues can sway voter preferences.
The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing places it during a midterm election cycle, which often sees varying voter turnout.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective belief of market participants regarding the likelihood of various candidates winning.
South Carolina Senate winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican leads at 85% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democrat at 16%.
Republican currently leads at 85% implied probability. Behind Republican, Democrat at 16% are the next closest contenders. The 4.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Republican
84.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of South Carolina for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
