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ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 49.9% // +$4990.00

Live prediction market odds for South Dakota Republican Senate nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

South Dakota Republican Senate nominee?

2026-06-28

About This Market

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Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the South Dakota Republican Senate nominee for the upcoming election. The outcome will influence party dynamics and strategies leading up to the 2026 elections, making it a focal point for political analysts and voters alike.

Mike Rounds leads the “South Dakota Republican Senate nominee” event at 99.8% implied probability. Other contenders include Justin McNeal (25.1%), and Kristi Noem (25.1%). A 49.9% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
MR
Mike Rounds
75% Avg
Kalshi100¢
Polymarket100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
50.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
99.5%99¢100¢0¢1¢
JM
Justin McNeal
50% Avg
Kalshi100¢
Polymarket0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
50.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%100¢0¢100¢0¢
KN
Kristi Noem
50% Avg
Kalshi100¢
Polymarket0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
50.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%100¢0¢100¢0¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Mike Rounds

Mike Rounds is the current U.S. Senator from South Dakota, serving his second term since 2015. He previously served as the state's governor from 2003 to 2011. He is seeking re-election in the 2026 Senate race.

About Kristi Noem

Kristi Noem is the United States Special Envoy for the Shield of the Americas. She served as Secretary of Homeland Security from January 25, 2025, to March 31, 2026. She is relevant to this prediction market due to her recent reassignment to the Special Envoy position.

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will Trump name during the State of the Union address?LOSTPre-event: 39%What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the South Dakota Republican Senate nominee?

Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, fundraising success, and endorsements. Additionally, polling data and public sentiment can shift perceptions leading up to the election.

How does the nominee affect the Republican Party's strategy in South Dakota?

The nominee will shape the party's campaign focus and resource allocation in the state. A strong candidate could energize the base and attract independent voters.

When is the election for the South Dakota Republican Senate nominee?

The election is scheduled for June 28, 2026. This date is crucial as it falls within the broader context of the midterm elections, impacting national political trends.

What is "South Dakota Republican Senate nominee?" and why does it matter?

South Dakota Republican Senate nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Mike Rounds leads at 100% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Justin McNeal at 25%, Kristi Noem at 25%.

What is moving the odds on "South Dakota Republican Senate nominee?"?

Mike Rounds currently leads at 100% implied probability. Behind Mike Rounds, Justin McNeal at 25% and Kristi Noem at 25% are the next closest contenders. The 49.9% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread49.9%
Platforms2
Candidates3
Leader

Mike Rounds

99.8% avg

Market Rulebook: South Dakota Republican Senate nominee?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Justin McNeal wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II South Dakota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Democratic PartyRepublican Party

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Who will Trump name during the State of the Union address?

Resolved

2026-03-02

LOSTKristi Noem
Pre-event: 39%

What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?

Resolved

2026-02-28

WONKristi Noem
Pre-event: 99%

Who will attend the State of the Union?

Resolved

2026-02-24

WONKristi Noem
Pre-event: 0%
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?
WONPre-event: 99%
Who will attend the State of the Union?WONPre-event: 0%
No price history available