Live prediction market odds for SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Opinion and Predict.fun.
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Polymarket / Opinion / Predict.fun
2027-12-31
Predict.fun + Polymarket pair (auto-ingested via condition_id cross-ref)
>$1.2T leads the “SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ” event at 98.2% implied probability. Other contenders include >$1T (64.7%), >$1.4T (64.5%), >$1.6T (65.2%), and >$1.8T (57.1%). A 98.7% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Polymarket, Opinion, Predict.fun). >$1.2T leads at 98% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include >$1T at 1%, >$1.4T at 5%, >$1.6T at 9%.
>$1.2T currently leads at 98% implied probability. Behind >$1.2T, >$1T at 1% and >$1.4T at 5% and >$1.6T at 9% are the next closest contenders. The 98.7% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Polymarket, Opinion, Predict.fun: >$1.2T: 97¢ on Polymarket. >$1T: 1¢ on Polymarket. >$1.4T: 5¢ on Polymarket. >$1.6T: 9¢ on Polymarket. The 98.7% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 98¢ means the market estimates a 98% probability that >$1.2T will be the outcome. Buying one share at 98¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 2% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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>$1.2T
98.2% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Opinion and Predict.fun.
OpinionThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Predict.fun{'description': 'This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.\n\nCreated At: 2026-03-02T12:58:17.413636092Z'}
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