Question 1

What factors influence Spain's chances of advancing in the tournament?

Accepted Answer

Team performance in group matches, player injuries, and historical performance against opponents are crucial factors. Additionally, the strength of the group and knockout stage matchups will play a significant role.

Question 2

How do prediction markets determine Spain's stage of elimination?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of traders who buy and sell shares based on their expectations of outcomes. As new information becomes available, such as match results and player conditions, the odds fluctuate accordingly.

Question 3

What is the significance of Spain's performance in the World Cup?

Accepted Answer

Spain's performance can impact national pride and the future of its football program. Success or failure can also influence player selections and coaching decisions for upcoming tournaments.

Question 4

What is "Spain: Stage of Elimination" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Spain: Stage of Elimination is a prediction market event currently tracked across 1 platform (Kalshi). Round of 32 leads at 22% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Semifinals at 17%, Outright Winner at 15%, Quarterfinals at 13%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Spain: Stage of Elimination"?

Accepted Answer

Round of 32 currently leads at 22% implied probability. Behind Round of 32, Semifinals at 17% and Outright Winner at 15% and Quarterfinals at 13% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Spain: Stage of Elimination" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi: Round of 32: 22¢ on Kalshi. Semifinals: 17¢ on Kalshi. Outright Winner: 15¢ on Kalshi. Quarterfinals: 13¢ on Kalshi. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.

Question 7

What does it mean that Round of 32 is at 22%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 22¢ means the market estimates a 22% probability that Round of 32 will be the outcome. Buying one share at 22¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 355% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Spain: Stage of Elimination

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