About This Market
SharePolymarket and Kalshi are tracking the state of the economy at the end of 2026. Economic indicators such as inflation rates, unemployment levels, and growth projections will heavily influence market sentiment and investor confidence leading up to this date.
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) leads the “State of the economy at the end of 2026” event at 34.0% implied probability. Other contenders include Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) (27.0%), and Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) (24.3%). A 13.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
