Live prediction market odds for TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2025-12-31
This market resolved on 2025-12-31. Elon Musk was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 75%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Elon MuskWINNER | 99% | 50% |
Jensen Huang | 99% | 50% |
Sam Altman | 99% | 50% |
Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 3% | 50% |
Artificial Intelligence | 1% | 50% |
Benjamin Netanyahu | 1% | 50% |
Charlie Kirk | 1% | 50% |
Donald Trump | 1% | 50% |
Jerome Powell | 1% | 50% |
LeBron James | 1% | 50% |
Pope Leo XIV | 1% | 50% |
Taylor Swift | 1% | 50% |
Xi Jinping | 1% | 50% |
Zohran Mamdani | 1% | 50% |
TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Elon Musk led the market at 75% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Jensen Huang at 75%, Sam Altman at 75%, Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 27%.
Elon Musk held the lead at 75% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Elon Musk, Jensen Huang at 75% and Sam Altman at 75% and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 27% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Elon Musk: 99¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Jensen Huang: 99¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Sam Altman: 99¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Volodymyr Zelenskyy: 3¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 75¢ meant the market estimated a 75% chance that Elon Musk would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 75¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 33% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Elon Musk
74.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Donald Trump is Time Person of the Year for 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
If there is no Person of the Year (and instead many variations thereof, e.g. Entertainer of the Year, Hero of the Year), that is not encompassed in the Payout Criterion. If multiple persons win, all persons that are listed are encompassed within the Payout Criterion. If, for example, the Person of the Year is “Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, both “Joe Biden” and “Kamala Harris” strikes are encompassed within the Payout Criterion. The person must be explicitly named as the Person of the Year or pictured on the/a relevant cover if they are associated with the group/concept winning (the picture is only relevant for a natural human being winning). Some examples to illustrate this: “Jamal Khasogghi” would resolve to Yes in 2018, when “The Guardians” won, as he is also named and shown on a cover and falls within “The Guardians”. Similarly, “Bill Gates” would resolve to Yes in 2005. “Ashley Judd” would resolve to Yes in 2018. If “ChatGPT” was the Person of the Year, strikes of “AI” or “LLMs” would resolve to No, since even if they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous (and thus are not explicitly named), and are not persons, so it would not matter if they were identified in the image. Or if “Sam Altman” was the Person of the Year, and the cover showed a person using ChatGPT on their computer, “ChatGPT” would not resolve to Yes because it is not a person. If Time uses language that does not specifically refer to a person or organization (examples being 2018’s “The Guardians of Truth” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), Kalshi will resolve markets to the most simple meaning reasonable. In those cases, “Journalists” and “the Me Too movement” would resolve to Yes.
