Live prediction market odds for TIME's Person of the Year for 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi.
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Kalshi
2027-01-01
Donald Trump leads the “TIME's Person of the Year for 2026” event at 26.0% implied probability. Other contenders include Zohran Mamdani (20.0%), Pope Leo XIV (18.0%), AI (10.5%), and Sam Altman (10.0%). Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread.
TIME's Person of the Year for 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 1 platform (Kalshi). Donald Trump leads at 26% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Zohran Mamdani at 20%, Pope Leo XIV at 18%, AI at 11%.
Donald Trump currently leads at 26% implied probability. Behind Donald Trump, Zohran Mamdani at 20% and Pope Leo XIV at 18% and AI at 11% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi: Donald Trump: 26¢ on Kalshi. Zohran Mamdani: 20¢ on Kalshi. Pope Leo XIV: 18¢ on Kalshi. AI: 11¢ on Kalshi. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 26¢ means the market estimates a 26% probability that Donald Trump will be the outcome. Buying one share at 26¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 285% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Donald Trump
26.0% avg
