Live prediction market odds for TN-03 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the TN-03 House Election Winner for the upcoming election on November 3, 2026. This election is crucial as it could impact the balance of power in Congress, influencing legislative priorities and national policies.
Republican Party leads the “TN-03 House Election Winner” event at 93.5% implied probability, followed by Democratic Party at 6.2%. A 4.1% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and local voter sentiment. Polling data and endorsements can also significantly sway market predictions.
The outcome could shift the majority in the House of Representatives, affecting legislative agendas. Key issues at stake may include healthcare, education, and economic policies.
The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date aligns with the general election cycle for federal offices in the United States.
TN-03 House Election Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican Party leads at 94% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic Party at 6%.
Republican Party currently leads at 94% implied probability. Behind Republican Party, Democratic Party at 6% are the next closest contenders. The 4.1% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times and Polymark.et
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Republican Party
93.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for TN-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
