Live prediction market odds for TN-04 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the TN-04 House Election Winner for the upcoming election on November 3, 2026. This race is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in the region.
Republican party leads the “TN-04 House Election Winner” event at 93.3% implied probability, followed by Democratic party at 5.8%. A 3.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Polling data, candidate profiles, and local issues significantly impact the odds. Additionally, national trends and party dynamics play a role in shaping voter preferences.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell contracts based on the likelihood of various outcomes. Prices reflect collective expectations about the election results.
Winning the TN-04 seat could affect party control in the House of Representatives. This election may also serve as a barometer for broader political trends leading into the 2026 midterms.
TN-04 House Election Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican party leads at 93% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic party at 6%.
Republican party currently leads at 93% implied probability. Behind Republican party, Democratic party at 6% are the next closest contenders. The 3.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times and Polymark.et
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Republican party
93.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for TN-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
