Live prediction market odds for TN-09 Democratic nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-08-06
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Democratic nomination for Tennessee's 9th congressional district in 2026. This race is crucial as it could impact the balance of power in Congress and reflect shifting political dynamics in the region.
Steve Cohen leads the “TN-09 Democratic nominee” event at 60.0% implied probability, followed by Justin Pearson at 32.3%. A 16.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Polling data, candidate endorsements, and fundraising efforts play significant roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, local political trends and voter sentiment can impact market perceptions.
The TN-09 race is part of the 2026 midterm elections, which are critical for both parties to secure or regain control of Congress. Changes in voter demographics and turnout rates in this district could signal larger trends.
The nomination will be decided during the primary elections scheduled for August 2026. Candidates will campaign vigorously in the lead-up to the primaries to secure their position.
TN-09 Democratic nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Steve Cohen leads at 60% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Justin Pearson at 32%.
Steve Cohen currently leads at 60% implied probability. Behind Steve Cohen, Justin Pearson at 32% are the next closest contenders. The 16.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Steve Cohen
60.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Justin Pearson wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 TN-09 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
