Live prediction market odds for TN-09 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the TN-09 House Election Winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This race is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues leading up to the election.
B leads the “TN-09 House Election Winner” event at 85.5% implied probability, followed by A at 28.6%. A 42.9% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and local issues that resonate with voters. Polling data and endorsements can also significantly impact market odds.
Odds are updated in real-time as new information becomes available, including polling results and major campaign events. Traders actively adjust their positions based on the latest developments.
TN-09 is considered a bellwether district, often reflecting broader national trends. Winning this seat could provide momentum for the party that secures it, influencing future elections.
TN-09 House Election Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). B leads at 86% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include A at 29%.
B currently leads at 86% implied probability. Behind B, A at 29% are the next closest contenders. The 42.9% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for TN-09 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
B
85.5% avg
