Live prediction market odds for Trump out as President before 2027?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Opinion.
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Polymarket / Opinion
2026-12-31
Polymarket and Opinion are tracking the likelihood of Trump exiting the presidency before 2027. This event is pivotal as it could reshape the political landscape leading into the next election cycle, influencing party dynamics and voter sentiment.
Trump out as President before 2027 is priced at 14.2% implied probability for the “Trump out as President before 2027” event. A 4.7% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Potential factors include legal challenges, health issues, or political pressures. Any significant developments in these areas could influence market odds.
Odds are derived from the collective sentiment and expectations of market participants. They reflect real-time assessments based on news, polling data, and other relevant information.
Trump's exit could lead to a power vacuum within the party, prompting a shift in leadership dynamics. It may also affect the strategies and candidates for the upcoming elections.
Trump out as President before 2027 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Polymarket, Opinion). Trump out as President before 2027 leads at 14% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Trump out as President before 2027 currently leads at 14% implied probability. The 4.7% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Opinion and Polymarket.
OpinionThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trump out as President before 2027
14.2% avg
