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MarketsWhalesArbTrending
ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 6.3% // +$635.00

Live prediction market odds for Turkiye: Stage of Elimination. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Turkiye: Stage of Elimination

2026-07-19

About This Market

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Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the stage of elimination for Turkiye in the upcoming sports tournament. The outcome will influence national pride and international rankings, as well as impact future funding and support for the sport in the country.

Group Stage leads the “Turkiye: Stage of Elimination” event at 42.0% implied probability. Other contenders include Round of 32 (36.8%), Final (3.3%), and Semifinals (1.9%). A 6.3% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
GS
Group Stage
41% Avg
Kalshi49¢
Polymarket48¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
36.5%24¢49¢51¢76¢
PolymarketPolymarket
45.0%42¢48¢52¢58¢
RO
Round of 32
31% Avg
Kalshi49¢
Polymarket36¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
27.0%5¢49¢51¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
35.5%35¢36¢64¢65¢
F
FinalARB
3% Avg
Kalshi8¢
Polymarket0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
6.5%5¢8¢92¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.0%0¢0¢100¢100¢
S
Semifinals
9% Avg
Kalshi29¢
Polymarket4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
15.5%2¢29¢71¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.0%0¢4¢96¢100¢

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence Turkiye's chances of advancing?

Team performance, player injuries, and historical matchups against opponents are key factors. Additionally, the strength of the group stage and knockout round competitors will play a significant role.

How does this event affect Turkiye's sports funding?

Success in international tournaments often leads to increased funding for sports programs. A strong performance can boost public interest and sponsorship opportunities.

What are the implications of Turkiye's elimination stage?

The stage of elimination can affect the team's morale and future player selections. It also impacts fan engagement and the overall investment in the national sports infrastructure.

What is "Turkiye: Stage of Elimination" and why does it matter?

Turkiye: Stage of Elimination is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Group Stage leads at 42% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Round of 32 at 37%, Final at 3%, Semifinals at 2%.

What is moving the odds on "Turkiye: Stage of Elimination"?

Group Stage currently leads at 42% implied probability. Behind Group Stage, Round of 32 at 37% and Final at 3% and Semifinals at 2% are the next closest contenders. The 6.3% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread6.3%
Platforms2
Candidates4
Leader

Group Stage

Market Rulebook: Turkiye: Stage of Elimination

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Turkiye is eliminated in the Group Stage in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

For the purposes of this Contract, if a team withdraws, forfeits or is disqualified at any point during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, their stage of elimination will be determined by the farthest stage they reached prior to withdrawal, forfeit or disqualification. For example, if a team withdraws after winning their Round of 32 match, the market titled "Round of 16" will resolve to Yes since that would be the next stage where they would have been eliminated had they continued competing. Note: If a team loses in the Semifinals, the market titled "Semifinals" will resolve to Yes, regardless of whether they win the third-place match. This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi. This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle
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42.0% avg

Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed
Round of 32
No$117 · 1 whale
Yes$108 · 1 whale
Final
No$179 · 1 whale
Semifinals
No$119 · 1 whale

$50K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow