Live prediction market odds for TX-01 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the TX-01 House Election scheduled for November 3, 2026. This election is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, impacting legislative agendas and national policies.
Republican party leads the “TX-01 House Election Winner” event at 93.8% implied probability, followed by Democratic party at 6.3%. A 2.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Polling data, candidate fundraising, and local issues play crucial roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, national trends and party support can sway voter sentiment leading up to the election.
Prediction markets aggregate the collective wisdom of participants betting on outcomes, reflecting real-time sentiment. As new information emerges, such as candidate debates or endorsements, the odds adjust accordingly.
Winning the TX-01 seat could provide a critical advantage for either party in the House of Representatives. This election may also serve as a bellwether for broader political trends heading into the 2026 midterms.
TX-01 House Election Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican party leads at 94% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic party at 6%.
Republican party currently leads at 94% implied probability. Behind Republican party, Democratic party at 6% are the next closest contenders. A 2.5% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
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As seen on Financial Times and Polymark.et
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Republican party
93.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for TX-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
