Live prediction market odds for TX-07 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the TX-07 House Election Winner for the upcoming November 2026 election. This contest is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in the region.
Democratic party leads the “TX-07 House Election Winner” event at 93.8% implied probability, followed by Republican party at 72.5%. A 45.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout trends. Local issues and national political climate also play significant roles.
Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who buy and sell shares based on their expectations of outcomes. Prices reflect the collective sentiment and analysis of various factors impacting the election.
TX-07 is a competitive district that can sway the overall control of the House. Its demographics and voting history make it a key battleground for both parties.
TX-07 House Election Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic party leads at 94% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican party at 73%.
Democratic party currently leads at 94% implied probability. Behind Democratic party, Republican party at 73% are the next closest contenders. The 45.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times and Polymark.et
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for TX-07 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Democratic party
93.8% avg
