Live prediction market odds for TX-21 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the TX-21 House Election set for November 3, 2026. This election is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in Texas.
Republican Party leads the “TX-21 House Election Winner” event at 81.3% implied probability, followed by Democratic Party at 16.8%. A 3.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Key factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout. Additionally, national political trends and local issues will play a significant role.
TX-21 has historically leaned Republican, but demographic shifts and recent elections show potential for competitive races. Changes in voter registration and turnout can significantly impact results.
Winning the TX-21 seat could affect party control in the House, influencing legislative agendas. A shift in this district may also signal broader trends in Texas politics.
TX-21 House Election Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican Party leads at 81% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic Party at 17%.
Republican Party currently leads at 81% implied probability. Behind Republican Party, Democratic Party at 17% are the next closest contenders. The 3.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Republican Party
81.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for TX-21 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
