Live prediction market odds for TX-28 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-04
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the TX-28 House race set for November 4, 2026. This election is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in Texas.
Democratic Party leads the “TX-28 House winner” event at 69.0% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 34.8%. A 17.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, voter turnout, and local issues. Polling data and endorsements also play a crucial role in shaping market expectations.
The outcome could affect the overall composition of the House of Representatives, influencing legislative priorities. Additionally, it may serve as a bellwether for upcoming elections in other districts.
Results are expected to be reported on election night, November 4, 2026. However, final certification of the results may take several days or weeks, depending on the state’s election procedures.
TX-28 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 69% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 35%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 69% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 35% are the next closest contenders. The 17.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “TX-28 House winner?” event. All for free.
As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
Used by builders and traders in our 3K+ Discord community
Democratic Party
69.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for TX-28 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
