Live prediction market odds for TX-30 Republican nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-05-26
This market resolved on 2026-05-26. Everett Jackson was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 75%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Republican nominee in Texas's 30th congressional district. This contest is pivotal as it could influence party dynamics and voter turnout in the upcoming elections.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Everett JacksonWINNER | 100% | 50% |
Gregor Heise | 0% | 50% |
Nils Walker | 0% | 50% |
Sholdon Daniels |
The TX-30 district is a key battleground that could affect overall Republican strategies in Texas. Winning this nomination may determine the party's ability to secure a seat in a competitive area.
Odds are influenced by candidate fundraising, endorsements, and polling data. Additionally, shifts in voter sentiment and party alignment in the district play a crucial role.
The election for the TX-30 Republican nominee is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This timeline allows candidates to campaign and engage with voters leading up to the primary.
TX-30 Republican nominee was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Everett Jackson led the market at 75% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Gregor Heise at 25%, Nils Walker at 25%, Sholdon Daniels at 25%.
Everett Jackson held the lead at 75% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Everett Jackson, Gregor Heise at 25% and Nils Walker at 25% and Sholdon Daniels at 25% were the next closest contenders. The 49.9% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Sholdon Daniels wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 TX-30 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
| 50% |
Everett Jackson
75.0% avg
