Live prediction market odds for TX-30 Republican nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-26
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Republican nominee in Texas's 30th congressional district. This contest is pivotal as it could influence party dynamics and voter turnout in the upcoming elections.
Everett Jackson leads TX-30 Republican nominee at 73.7% implied probability. Other contenders include Sholdon Daniels (24.3%), Nils Walker (2.1%), and Gregor Heise (0.8%). A 2.3% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
The TX-30 district is a key battleground that could affect overall Republican strategies in Texas. Winning this nomination may determine the party's ability to secure a seat in a competitive area.
Odds are influenced by candidate fundraising, endorsements, and polling data. Additionally, shifts in voter sentiment and party alignment in the district play a crucial role.
The election for the TX-30 Republican nominee is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This timeline allows candidates to campaign and engage with voters leading up to the primary.
TX-30 Republican nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Everett Jackson leads at 74% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Sholdon Daniels at 24%, Nils Walker at 2%, Gregor Heise at 1%.
Everett Jackson currently leads at 74% implied probability. Behind Everett Jackson, Sholdon Daniels at 24% and Nils Walker at 2% and Gregor Heise at 1% are the next closest contenders. A 2.3% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Everett Jackson
73.7% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Sholdon Daniels wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 TX-30 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
