Live prediction market odds for TX-34 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-04
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the TX-34 House race. This election will play a crucial role in shaping the balance of power in Congress, making it a focal point for both parties as they strategize for the upcoming election cycle.
Democratic Party leads the “TX-34 House winner” event at 62.0% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 36.5%. A 5.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and voter turnout trends. Additionally, national political climate and local issues can sway public opinion.
The election is scheduled for November 4, 2026. This date is significant as it coincides with the general election, which typically sees higher voter engagement.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective wisdom of market participants regarding the likelihood of various candidates winning.
TX-34 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 62% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 37%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 62% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 37% are the next closest contenders. The 5.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Democratic Party
62.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for TX-34 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
