Live prediction market odds for TX-35 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-04
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the TX-35 House race scheduled for November 2026. This election is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in Texas.
Republican Party leads the “TX-35 House winner” event at 53.5% implied probability, followed by Democratic Party at 49.5%. A 15.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising totals, and local issues affecting voters. Polling data leading up to the election also plays a crucial role in shaping market expectations.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective beliefs of traders about the likelihood of various candidates winning.
The outcome could significantly impact legislative priorities and party control in Congress. Additionally, it may serve as a barometer for broader political trends in Texas leading into the 2026 elections.
TX-35 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican Party leads at 54% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic Party at 50%.
Republican Party currently leads at 54% implied probability. Behind Republican Party, Democratic Party at 50% are the next closest contenders. The 15.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Republican Party
53.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for TX-35 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
