Live prediction market odds for Atlético Madrid vs. Arsenal. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-05
Atlético Madrid vs. Arsenal — UEFA Champions League game scheduled for 2026-05-05. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Arsenal leads the “Atlético Madrid vs. Arsenal” event at 46.5% implied probability, followed by Draw at 36.8%. A 16.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Atlético Madrid vs. Arsenal is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Arsenal leads at 47% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Draw at 37%.
Arsenal currently leads at 47% implied probability. Behind Arsenal, Draw at 37% are the next closest contenders. The 16.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Arsenal: 42¢ on Kalshi, 52¢ on Polymarket. Draw: 29¢ on Kalshi, 45¢ on Polymarket. The 16.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 47¢ means the market estimates a 47% probability that Arsenal will be the outcome. Buying one share at 47¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 113% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Arsenal wins the Arsenal vs Atletico professional Champions League soccer game originally scheduled for May 5, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Arsenal vs Atletico professional Champions League soccer game originally scheduled for May 5, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties). If the game ends in a tie, the market called "Tie" resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
PolymarketIn the upcoming game, scheduled for May 5, 2026 If Arsenal FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Arsenal
46.5% avg
