Live prediction market odds for UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-03-08
Max Holloway leads the “UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira” event at 64.8% implied probability, followed by Charles Oliveira at 36.3%. A 1.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Max Holloway leads at 65% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Charles Oliveira at 36%.
Max Holloway currently leads at 65% implied probability. Behind Max Holloway, Charles Oliveira at 36% are the next closest contenders. A 1.5% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Max Holloway: 65¢ on Kalshi, 65¢ on Polymarket. Charles Oliveira: 37¢ on Kalshi, 36¢ on Polymarket. The 1.5% spread shows moderate platform divergence worth monitoring for potential opportunities.
A price of 65¢ means the market estimates a 65% probability that Max Holloway will be the outcome. Buying one share at 65¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 54% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Max Holloway
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Charles Oliveira wins the Holloway vs Oliveira professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Holloway vs Oliveira professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 7, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.
64.8% avg
