Live prediction market odds for UFC 328: Alvarez vs Amosov. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-10
Yaroslav Amosov leads the “UFC 328: Alvarez vs Amosov” event at 61.5% implied probability, followed by Joel Álvarez at 39.0%. A 2.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
UFC 328: Alvarez vs Amosov is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Yaroslav Amosov leads at 62% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Joel Álvarez at 39%.
Yaroslav Amosov currently leads at 62% implied probability. Behind Yaroslav Amosov, Joel Álvarez at 39% are the next closest contenders. A 2.0% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Yaroslav Amosov: 61¢ on Kalshi, 62¢ on Polymarket. Joel Álvarez: 40¢ on Kalshi, 38¢ on Polymarket. The 2.0% spread shows moderate platform divergence worth monitoring for potential opportunities.
A price of 62¢ means the market estimates a 62% probability that Yaroslav Amosov will be the outcome. Buying one share at 62¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 61% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Yaroslav Amosov
61.5% avg
