Live prediction market odds for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-17
Arnold Allen leads the “UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa” event at 58.5% implied probability, followed by Melquizael Costa at 42.0%. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread.
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Arnold Allen leads at 59% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Melquizael Costa at 42%.
Arnold Allen currently leads at 59% implied probability. Behind Arnold Allen, Melquizael Costa at 42% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Arnold Allen: 59¢ on Kalshi, 58¢ on Polymarket. Melquizael Costa: 42¢ on Kalshi, 42¢ on Polymarket. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 59¢ means the market estimates a 59% probability that Arnold Allen will be the outcome. Buying one share at 59¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 69% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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This market resolves based on official announcements from authoritative sources. Prediction Hunt aggregates odds across platforms but does not determine outcomes. Each platform maintains its own resolution criteria — check each platform's rules before trading.
Arnold Allen
58.5% avg
