Question 1

What factors influence the odds for UFC Fight Night: Wellmaker vs Diaz?

Accepted Answer

Odds are affected by fighter statistics, recent performances, and public sentiment. Injuries or changes in training camps can also lead to significant shifts in betting behavior.

Question 2

How do prediction markets work for UFC events?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets allow participants to bet on the outcomes of events, with prices reflecting the perceived probability of each outcome. As new information becomes available, such as weigh-ins or fight week developments, odds can fluctuate.

Question 3

What is the significance of UFC Fight Night events?

Accepted Answer

UFC Fight Night events often feature rising stars and can impact rankings within the organization. Performance in these fights can lead to title shot opportunities or increased visibility for the fighters involved.

Question 4

What is "UFC Fight Night: Wellmaker vs Diaz" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

UFC Fight Night: Wellmaker vs Diaz is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Malcolm Wellmaker leads at 35% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Juan Diaz at 66%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "UFC Fight Night: Wellmaker vs Diaz"?

Accepted Answer

Malcolm Wellmaker currently leads at 35% implied probability. Behind Malcolm Wellmaker, Juan Diaz at 66% are the next closest contenders. The 67.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "UFC Fight Night: Wellmaker vs Diaz" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Malcolm Wellmaker: 1¢ on Kalshi, 68¢ on Polymarket. Juan Diaz: 99¢ on Kalshi, 32¢ on Polymarket. The 67.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Malcolm Wellmaker is at 35%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 35¢ means the market estimates a 35% probability that Malcolm Wellmaker will be the outcome. Buying one share at 35¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 186% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	67.5%	67¢	68¢	32¢	33¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	99.5%	99¢	100¢	0¢	1¢
Polymarket	32.5%	32¢	33¢	67¢	68¢

Kalshi

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UFC Fight Night: Wellmaker vs Diaz

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Market Rulebook: UFC Fight Night: Wellmaker vs Diaz