Live prediction market odds for US defaults before 2027?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-12-31
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the likelihood of the US defaulting on its debt before 2027. This event carries significant implications for global financial markets and could affect interest rates, investor confidence, and economic stability.
US defaults on debt by 2027 is priced at 6.9% implied probability for US defaults before 2027. A 2.2% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Potential factors include political gridlock over debt ceiling negotiations, economic downturns, or unexpected increases in government spending. These scenarios could strain the federal budget and lead to a default.
A US default could lead to increased borrowing costs and reduced confidence in US financial stability. This may trigger volatility in global markets, affecting currencies, stocks, and commodities.
The US has never fully defaulted on its debt, but there have been instances of technical defaults, such as in 1979 due to administrative errors. These events have historically resulted in market turmoil and increased scrutiny of US fiscal policy.
US defaults before 2027 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). US defaults on debt by 2027 leads at 7% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
US defaults on debt by 2027 currently leads at 7% implied probability. A 2.2% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
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US defaults on debt by 2027
6.9% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
