Live prediction market odds for US recession by end of 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-12-31
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the likelihood of a US recession occurring by the end of 2026. Economic indicators, including inflation rates, employment figures, and consumer spending trends, play a crucial role in shaping market expectations around this potential downturn.
US recession by end of 2026 is priced at 16.3% implied probability for the “US recession by end of 2026” event. A 4.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Key factors include inflation rates, unemployment statistics, and consumer spending patterns. These economic indicators help analysts gauge the overall health of the economy.
Prediction markets aggregate the views of participants, reflecting their expectations about future economic conditions. Shifts in odds can indicate changing sentiment based on new economic data or policy announcements.
A recession can lead to increased unemployment, reduced consumer spending, and lower business investment. These factors can have long-lasting effects on economic growth and stability.
US recession by end of 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). US recession by end of 2026 leads at 16% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
US recession by end of 2026 currently leads at 16% implied probability. The 4.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
US recession by end of 2026
16.3% avg
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