Live prediction market odds for UT-01 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-04
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the UT-01 House election set for November 2026. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues leading up to the election.
Democratic Party leads the “UT-01 House winner” event at 85.5% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 10.3%. A 7.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and polling data. Additionally, local and national political trends can sway voter sentiment leading up to the election.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective beliefs of market participants about the likelihood of each candidate winning.
The UT-01 House election is significant as it could impact the overall composition of the House of Representatives. Outcomes in this race may also serve as a barometer for national political trends ahead of the 2026 elections.
UT-01 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 86% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 10%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 86% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 10% are the next closest contenders. The 7.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Democratic Party
85.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for UT-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
