Live prediction market odds for UT-02 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-04
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the UT-02 House race. This election will influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in the region.
Republican Party leads the “UT-02 House winner” event at 71.3% implied probability, followed by Democratic Party at 15.0%. A 31.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Key factors include local economic conditions, candidate popularity, and national political trends. Voter turnout and campaign strategies will also play crucial roles.
Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants, providing insights into perceived probabilities of various outcomes. Fluctuations in odds can indicate changing public sentiment as the election date approaches.
The UT-02 House election is set for November 4, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election, which typically sees higher voter engagement.
UT-02 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican Party leads at 71% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic Party at 15%.
Republican Party currently leads at 71% implied probability. Behind Republican Party, Democratic Party at 15% are the next closest contenders. The 31.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Republican Party
71.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for UT-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
