Live prediction market odds for WA-01 House Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the WA-01 House Election scheduled for November 3, 2026. This election will be pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in the House of Representatives, impacting legislative priorities and party strategies.
Democratic Party leads the “WA-01 House Election Winner” event at 54.8% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 6.1%. A 77.6% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising success, and voter turnout trends. Additionally, national political climate and key issues affecting constituents play a significant role.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of events, such as elections. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of various outcomes.
The outcome could determine control of the House, influencing future legislation on critical issues. A shift in power may also affect the political landscape leading into the next election cycle.
WA-01 House Election Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 55% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 6%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 55% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 6% are the next closest contenders. The 77.6% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Democratic Party
54.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for WA-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
