Live prediction market odds for WA-01 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the WA-01 House seat in the upcoming 2026 elections. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, with various factors like voter turnout and party support playing crucial roles in shaping the odds.
Democratic Party is priced at 51.0% implied probability for the “WA-01 House winner” event. A 85.1% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Key factors include polling data, candidate fundraising, and local issues that resonate with voters. Additionally, national trends and party strategies can significantly impact voter turnout.
The outcome of this race could shift the majority in the House of Representatives, affecting legislative priorities. A change in representation may also influence future elections and party strategies nationwide.
The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date is significant as it aligns with the general election cycle, when multiple federal and state offices are contested.
WA-01 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 51% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Democratic Party currently leads at 51% implied probability. The 85.1% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Democratic Party
51.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for WA-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
