Live prediction market odds for What countries will Trump visit in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-12-31
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking which countries Donald Trump will visit in 2026. This event matters as it could influence international relations and Trump's political capital ahead of future elections.
Pakistan is priced at 21.5% implied probability for the “What countries will Trump visit in 2026” event. A 3.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Trump's travel decisions may be influenced by diplomatic relations, political alliances, and potential business interests. Additionally, upcoming elections could shape his itinerary as he seeks to bolster support.
Prediction markets analyze various data points, including expert opinions, geopolitical developments, and historical travel patterns. Traders place bets based on their assessments of the likelihood of specific countries being visited.
International relations can significantly impact Trump's travel plans, as visits to certain countries may be seen as endorsements or diplomatic gestures. The political climate and ongoing global issues will also shape the destinations he may choose.
What countries will Trump visit in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Pakistan leads at 22% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Pakistan currently leads at 22% implied probability. A 3.0% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
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Pakistan
21.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Pakistan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Physical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.
