What was "What will Google say during their next earnings call?" and why did it matter?
What will Google say during their next earnings call was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Autonomous led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include DeepMind / Deep Mind at 100%, Gemini 3 at 100%, Ironwood at 100%.
What moved the odds on "What will Google say during their next earnings call?"?
Autonomous held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Autonomous, DeepMind / Deep Mind at 100% and Gemini 3 at 100% and Ironwood at 100% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
What were the final odds for "What will Google say during their next earnings call?" across platforms?
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Autonomous: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. DeepMind / Deep Mind: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Gemini 3: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Ironwood: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
What did 100% odds for Autonomous mean?
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Autonomous would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Market Rulebook: What will Google say during their next earnings call?
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
Kalshi
Primary Rule
If Youtube Shorts is said by any Alphabet Inc. representative (including the operator of the call) during the next Alphabet Inc. earnings call (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Edge Cases
Video of the Alphabet Inc. earnings call will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the Alphabet Inc. earnings call will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details.
