What was "What will Netflix say during their next earnings call?" and why did it matter?
What will Netflix say during their next earnings call was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Acquisition led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Ad-Supported at 100%, Competition at 100%, Gaming at 100%.
What moved the odds on "What will Netflix say during their next earnings call?"?
Acquisition held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Acquisition, Ad-Supported at 100% and Competition at 100% and Gaming at 100% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
What were the final odds for "What will Netflix say during their next earnings call?" across platforms?
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Acquisition: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Ad-Supported: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Competition: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Gaming: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
What did 100% odds for Acquisition mean?
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Acquisition would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Market Rulebook: What will Netflix say during their next earnings call?
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
Kalshi
Primary Rule
If Stranger Things is said by any Netflix, Inc. representative (including the operator of the call) during the next Netflix, Inc. earnings call (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Edge Cases
Video of the Netflix, Inc. earnings call will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the Netflix, Inc. earnings call will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Please see full rules for more details.
