Question 1

What is FISA?

Accepted Answer

FISA stands for the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which governs the surveillance of foreign powers and agents in the U.S. It establishes procedures for the collection of foreign intelligence information.

Question 2

Why is the reauthorization of FISA significant?

Accepted Answer

Reauthorization of FISA is significant as it determines the legal framework for surveillance activities, affecting both national security and individual privacy rights. Changes to the law can lead to debates over civil liberties and government oversight.

Question 3

What factors influence the reauthorization timeline?

Accepted Answer

Factors influencing the reauthorization timeline include political negotiations, public opinion, and recent developments in national security threats. Legislative priorities and potential amendments to the act also play a critical role.

Question 4

What is "When will FISA be reauthorized again?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

When will FISA be reauthorized again is a prediction market event currently tracked across 1 platform (Kalshi). Before Jan 1, 2027 leads at 94% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Before Aug 1, 2026 at 88%, Before Jul 1, 2026 at 78%, Before Jun 25, 2026 at 58%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "When will FISA be reauthorized again?"?

Accepted Answer

Before Jan 1, 2027 currently leads at 94% implied probability. Behind Before Jan 1, 2027, Before Aug 1, 2026 at 88% and Before Jul 1, 2026 at 78% and Before Jun 25, 2026 at 58% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "When will FISA be reauthorized again?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi: Before Jan 1, 2027: 94¢ on Kalshi. Before Aug 1, 2026: 88¢ on Kalshi. Before Jul 1, 2026: 78¢ on Kalshi. Before Jun 25, 2026: 58¢ on Kalshi. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.

Question 7

What does it mean that Before Jan 1, 2027 is at 94%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 94¢ means the market estimates a 94% probability that Before Jan 1, 2027 will be the outcome. Buying one share at 94¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 6% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

When will FISA be reauthorized again?

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