Live prediction market odds for When will the next US recession start?. Compare prices across Kalshi.
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Kalshi
2026-12-31
Prediction markets on Kalshi are tracking the timing of the next US recession. Economic indicators, Federal Reserve policies, and global market conditions are influencing predictions about when this downturn might begin.
Q1 2026 leads the “When will the next US recession start” event at 6.3% implied probability. Other contenders include Q4 2025 (2.1%), and Q3 2025 (1.6%). Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread.
Predictions are influenced by economic indicators such as GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation. Additionally, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and global economic conditions play a significant role.
Odds in prediction markets are determined by the collective insights and bets of participants. As new economic data is released, participants adjust their positions, which in turn shifts the odds.
Understanding when a recession might start helps businesses and investors make informed decisions. It also impacts government policy responses and consumer confidence.
When will the next US recession start is a prediction market event currently tracked across 1 platform (Kalshi). Q1 2026 leads at 6% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Q4 2025 at 2%, Q3 2025 at 2%.
Q1 2026 currently leads at 6% implied probability. Behind Q1 2026, Q4 2025 at 2% and Q3 2025 at 2% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
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Q1 2026
6.3% avg
