Live prediction market odds for When will xAI release Grok 5?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-07-01
June 30, 2026 is priced at 13.3% implied probability for the “When will xAI release Grok 5” event. A 5.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
When will xAI release Grok 5 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). June 30, 2026 leads at 13% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
June 30, 2026 currently leads at 13% implied probability. The 5.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: June 30, 2026: 16¢ on Kalshi, 11¢ on Polymarket. The 5.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 13¢ means the market estimates a 13% probability that June 30, 2026 will be the outcome. Buying one share at 13¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 669% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “When will xAI release Grok 5?” event. All for free.
As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
Used by builders and traders in our 2.5K+ Discord community
June 30, 2026
13.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf xAI releases Grok 5 before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
