About This Market
ShareJune 30, 2026 is priced at 25.0% implied probability for the “When will xAI release Grok 5” event. A 10.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Live prediction market odds for When will xAI release Grok 5?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
When will xAI release Grok 5?
2026-07-01
Price History
Multi-Platform ProbabilitiesNo price history available
Live Markets
2 platforms
Frequently Asked Questions
What is "When will xAI release Grok 5?" and why does it matter?
When will xAI release Grok 5 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). June 30, 2026 leads at 25% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
What is moving the odds on "When will xAI release Grok 5?"?
June 30, 2026 currently leads at 25% implied probability. The 10.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
What are the current odds for "When will xAI release Grok 5?" across platforms?
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: June 30, 2026: 30¢ on Kalshi, 20¢ on Polymarket. The 10.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
What does it mean that June 30, 2026 is at 25%?
A price of 25¢ means the market estimates a 25% probability that June 30, 2026 will be the outcome. Buying one share at 25¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 300% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.