Question 1

What types of bills are being considered for law in 2026?

Accepted Answer

Various bills across multiple sectors, including technology, housing, and environmental policy, are under consideration. Each bill addresses specific issues that could have lasting impacts on society.

Question 2

How do prediction markets determine the likelihood of a bill becoming law?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who buy and sell shares based on their expectations of outcomes. Factors influencing these opinions include political dynamics, public support, and legislative priorities.

Question 3

What role do political events play in shaping the outcome of these bills?

Accepted Answer

Political events such as elections, committee hearings, and lobbying efforts can significantly affect the chances of a bill passing. Changes in party control or public sentiment can also shift the legislative agenda.

Question 4

What is "Which bills will become law in 2026?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Which bills will become law in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). DEFIANCE Act leads at 63% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Housing for the 21st Century Act at 59%, Data center utility cost protection at 47%, Critical-minerals stockpile at 46%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Which bills will become law in 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

DEFIANCE Act currently leads at 63% implied probability. Behind DEFIANCE Act, Housing for the 21st Century Act at 59% and Data center utility cost protection at 47% and Critical-minerals stockpile at 46% are the next closest contenders. The 61.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Which bills will become law in 2026?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: DEFIANCE Act: 52¢ on Kalshi, 74¢ on Polymarket. Housing for the 21st Century Act: 87¢ on Kalshi, 30¢ on Polymarket. Data center utility cost protection: 19¢ on Kalshi, 75¢ on Polymarket. Critical-minerals stockpile: 40¢ on Kalshi, 53¢ on Polymarket. The 61.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that DEFIANCE Act is at 63%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 63¢ means the market estimates a 63% probability that DEFIANCE Act will be the outcome. Buying one share at 63¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 59% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	54.5%	52¢	57¢	43¢	48¢
Polymarket	74.0%	57¢	91¢	9¢	43¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	87.5%	85¢	90¢	10¢	15¢
Polymarket	30.0%	18¢	42¢	58¢	82¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	18.5%	16¢	21¢	79¢	84¢
Polymarket	74.5%	60¢	89¢	11¢	40¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	38.0%	35¢	41¢	59¢	65¢
Polymarket	47.5%	16¢	79¢	21¢	84¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	28.5%	26¢	31¢	69¢	74¢
Polymarket	52.5%	51¢	54¢	46¢	49¢

Which bills will become law in 2026?

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Which bills will become law in 2026?