Question 1

What types of bills are being considered for law in 2026?

Accepted Answer

Various bills across multiple sectors, including technology, housing, and environmental policy, are under consideration. Each bill addresses specific issues that could have lasting impacts on society.

Question 2

How do prediction markets determine the likelihood of a bill becoming law?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who buy and sell shares based on their expectations of outcomes. Factors influencing these opinions include political dynamics, public support, and legislative priorities.

Question 3

What role do political events play in shaping the outcome of these bills?

Accepted Answer

Political events such as elections, committee hearings, and lobbying efforts can significantly affect the chances of a bill passing. Changes in party control or public sentiment can also shift the legislative agenda.

Question 4

What is "Which bills will become law in 2026?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Which bills will become law in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Housing for the 21st Century Act leads at 75% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Critical-minerals stockpile at 58%, DEFIANCE Act at 58%, Export-control chip security at 44%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Which bills will become law in 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

Housing for the 21st Century Act currently leads at 75% implied probability. Behind Housing for the 21st Century Act, Critical-minerals stockpile at 58% and DEFIANCE Act at 58% and Export-control chip security at 44% are the next closest contenders. The 35.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Which bills will become law in 2026?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Housing for the 21st Century Act: 69¢ on Kalshi, 81¢ on Polymarket. Critical-minerals stockpile: 45¢ on Kalshi, 71¢ on Polymarket. DEFIANCE Act: 65¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Export-control chip security: 36¢ on Kalshi, 52¢ on Polymarket. The 35.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Housing for the 21st Century Act is at 75%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 75¢ means the market estimates a 75% probability that Housing for the 21st Century Act will be the outcome. Buying one share at 75¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 33% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	72.0%	69¢	75¢	25¢	31¢
Polymarket	81.0%	70¢	92¢	8¢	30¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	44.5%	42¢	47¢	53¢	58¢
Polymarket	71.0%	48¢	94¢	6¢	52¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	65.0%	62¢	68¢	32¢	38¢
Polymarket	50.0%	6¢	94¢	6¢	94¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	32.5%	29¢	36¢	64¢	71¢
Polymarket	51.5%	9¢	94¢	6¢	91¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	25.5%	23¢	28¢	72¢	77¢
Polymarket	49.5%	5¢	94¢	6¢	95¢

Which bills will become law in 2026?

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