Live prediction market odds for Which company has the best AI model end of April?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.
MARKET RESOLVEDPolymarket / Predict.fun
Resolved 2026-04-30
This market resolved on 2026-04-30. Anthropic was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 96%.
Predict.fun + Polymarket pair (auto-ingested via condition_id cross-ref)
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
AnthropicWINNER | 94% | 99% |
Which company has the best AI model end of April was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Polymarket, Predict.fun). Anthropic led the market at 96% implied probability before resolution.
Anthropic held the lead at 96% implied probability heading into resolution. The 5.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Polymarket, Predict.fun: Anthropic: 94¢ on Polymarket. The 5.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 96¢ meant the market estimated a 96% chance that Anthropic would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 96¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 4% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “Which company has the best AI model end of April?” event. All for free.
As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
Used by builders and traders in our 2.5K+ Discord community
Anthropic
96.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.fun{'description': 'This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.\n\nCreated At: 2026-03-20T20:27:53.325364368Z'}
